Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
